Dr. Mehmet Akif Okur Assoc. Prof. / Gazi University-Ankara
There are lots of analysis trying to interpret Russia's intervention to Syrian civil war and preparations to widen its military presence through Iraqi territory within the narrow contexts of the Syrian problem, anti-ISIS struggle or, Putin's maneuver to gain the upper hand in a future bargain with the West over the Ukraine and related issues. Not a few of them also share the expectation that Russia cannot bear the financial burdens of the campaign, which has a potential to wade Moscow into a quagmire as was in Afghanistan. But, in my opinion, these interpretations are incomplete in many respects like focused actors, the planned reach and possible impacts of the pursued Russian/Iranian strategy which we may just witness the first phase of it.
First, there's a reasonable basis to think that this is not a unilateral Russian game plan, but a joint Russian/Iranian strategy. We need to open a larger space for Iran in the analysis to have a clear understanding about "the big picture". Let's look the sequence of events: The intensification of Russian military buildup in Syria came after the nuclear agreement between P5+1 and Iran. During the hot debates in the U.S. Congress about the deal, the famous commander of the IRGC, Qassem Suleimani, reportedly visited the Moscow, twice. After the blockage of the last bid aiming to kill the Iran deal in the U.S. Senate, Russia has begun to show its growing muscles in Syria.
The main goals of the core Iranian establishment are preservation of the regime and building a sphere of influence by playing a major regional role in the remaking process of the Middle East. To reach those aims, the Iranian establishment needs to satisfy domestic demands and have the ability to finance ongoing and future military campaigns abroad. Khamenei has looked to the nuclear deal promising the lifting of the sanctions as a practical leverage which can provide necessary financial/material means and more advantageous geopolitical position to Iran in this critical conjuncture of the Middle East.
On the other side of the coin, "gradual transformation of the Iranian regime through increased interactions" is among the unspoken expectations of the United States. The opening of Iran through the flow of western investment, technology and "ad hoc" partnerships in some crisis zones could socialize some segments of the elites and empower the moderate political forces. The acceptance of the limited Iranian intervention in Iraq was a signal to main conservative force of the regime, IRGC, showing the mutually beneficial cooperation possibilities in the region.
But, there is no change in the determination of the core establishment to use the fruits of the nuclear deal as a supporting instrument for the regime rather than to open the way for a process of internal reformation and deeper reconciliation with Washington. So, following a strategy to balance United States with Russia is the logical outcome of this reasoning.
Russia's huge military capabilities, diplomatic position in the international system and Iran's various assets, including the web of regional alliances and proxies complete each other. And in the near future, it would not be a surprise to see Russian aircraft in the skies of Iraq and beyond. Syrian intervention has opened Russia not just the shores of the Mediterranean, but also the road goes to the Gulf. We may feel the effects of this game changing move from Egypt to Bahrain and Yemen, although with different ways and intensities.
It is possible to argue against above pictured portrait by indicating the limited economic capabilities and internal weaknesses of Russia and the expected resistance of the counter forces both from and outside of the region. Although some of these objections are based on solid grounds, we need to take other possibilities into consideration . Middle East offers unique fortunes to intervening great powers. Oil/gas rich rival states in the region are accustomed to use billion dollars of deals to improve relations with the great powers which are able and intend to change delicate strategic balances in the region. So, the Gulf with its immediate neighborhood is neither Afghanistan nor Ukraine. Besides this, the size of the joint oil reserves, Russia, Iraq and Iran may inspire a new resource strategy aiming to influence price and trade mechanisms of global oil markets. If US will insist on stepping aside, other oil producing states, mainly from the Gulf region but not limited with them, may choose to jump on the nuclear power led bloc's bandwagon.
For now, such kinds of hypothetical scenarios are not at our doorsteps. Russia/Iran axis has to face with multiple hard to hurdle strategic problems until gaining "order building" status in the region. But, if the planned operations in Syriaq will create successful results contrary to general expectations, this Russia/Iran led coalition could have enough courage to imagine the unimaginable.
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